Barbee Dream Homes ~ Real Estate Group, LLC
Barbee Dream Homes Real Estate Group, LLC


With all the headlines and buzz in the media, some consumers believe the market is in a housing bubble. As the housing market shifts, you may be wondering what’ll happen next. It’s only natural for concerns to creep in that it could be a repeat of what took place in 2008. The good news is, there’s concrete data to show why this is nothing like the last time.

There’s a Shortage of Homes on the Market Today, Not a Surplus

The supply of inventory needed to sustain a normal real estate market is approximately six months. Anything more than that is an overabundance and will causes prices to depreciate. Anything less than that is a shortage and will lead to continued price appreciation.

For historical context, there were too many homes for sale during the housing crisis (many of which were short sales and foreclosures), and that caused prices to tumble. Today, supply is growing, but there’s still a shortage of inventory available.

The graph below uses data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) to show how this time compares to the crash. Today, unsold inventory sits at just a 3.0-months’ supply at the current sales pace.



One of the reasons inventory is still low is because of sustained underbuilding. When you couple that with ongoing buyer demand as millennials age into their peak homebuying years, it continues to put upward pressure on home prices. That limited supply compared to buyer demand is why experts forecast home prices won’t fall this time.

Mortgage Standards Were Much More Relaxed During the Crash

During the lead-up to the housing crisis, it was much easier to get a home loan than it is today. The graph below showcases data on the Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). The higher the number, the easier it is to get a mortgage.



Running up to 2006, banks were creating artificial demand by lowering lending standards and making it easy for just about anyone to qualify for a home loan or refinance their current home. Back then, lending institutions took on much greater risk in both the person and the mortgage products offered. That led to mass defaults, foreclosures, and falling prices.

Today, things are different, and purchasers face much higher standards from mortgage companies. Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, says:

Credit standards tightened in recent months due to increasing economic uncertainty and monetary policy tightening.” 

Stricter standards, like there are today, help prevent a risk of a rash of foreclosures like there was last time.

The Foreclosure Volume Is Nothing Like It Was During the Crash

The most obvious difference is the number of homeowners that were facing foreclosure after the housing bubble burst. Foreclosure activity has been on the way down since the crash because buyers today are more qualified and less likely to default on their loans. The graph below uses data from ATTOM Data Solutions to help tell the story:



In addition, homeowners today are equity rich, not tapped out. In the run-up to the housing bubble, some homeowners were using their homes as personal ATMs. Many immediately withdrew their equity once it built up. When home values began to fall, some homeowners found themselves in a negative equity situation where the amount they owed on their mortgage was greater than the value of their home. Some of those households decided to walk away from their homes, and that led to a wave of distressed property listings (foreclosures and short sales), which sold at considerable discounts that lowered the value of other homes in the area.

Today, prices have risen nicely over the last few years, and that’s given homeowners an equity boost. According to Black Knight:

In total, mortgage holders gained $2.8 trillion in tappable equity over the past 12 months – a 34% increase that equates to more than $207,000 in equity available per borrower. . . .”

With the average home equity now standing at $207,000, homeowners are in a completely different position this time.

Bottom Line

If you’re worried we’re making the same mistakes that led to the housing crash, the graphs above should help alleviate your concerns. Concrete data and expert insights clearly show why this is nothing like the last time.

    Joe Barbee - MRP, ABR, SFR
  Broker/Owner
  Barbee Dream Homes Real Estate Group

  478-978-3428 ~ Direct Line
  478-919-2165 ~ Office 
  www.FindHomesInWarnerRobins.com
  www.Facebook.com/BarbeeDreamHome

What our clients are saying  

Barbee Dream Homes did an excellent job selling our church’s rental home. They work hard to get your home sold. They are great with communication, advice and care about their sellers. I would recommend them without hesitation. If you need your home sold, you can trust them to give all they have on your behalf!

 

~ Craig Ruesch

I have known Joe for around 8 years or more. He has always been a man of integrity and runs his real estate team the same way. It was a no brainer when we went to purchase our home to use Joe & Jenny.

 

~ Michelle Griffin

Joe and Bob had our house closed within a month of getting it on the market. They're super quick about returning calls and messages and really took care of us. They're also laid back, which helps uptight people like me :)

 

~ Melanie Hazen

Joe made my first home buying experience unforgettable!! His dedication, integrity, and honesty are unmatched! The process was smooth and we got what we wanted. When I choose to buy again, the Barbee team will be my resource! Thank you Joe!!

 

~ Crystal Marie

So thankful for the hard work and dedication to get our house sold. They are honest, knowledgeable and great to work with.

 

~ Refuge Church

Awesome source for your real estate needs. Was very easy dealing with and informative.

 

~ Andrew Herndon

The Barbee Dream Team has truly been amazing. Every time I called and wanted to look at something or had a question they were there and available to help us. They have outstanding knowledge and compassion about the job which made this experience so amazing.

 

~ Alex Behling

Joe has been are buying agent for 2 homes. No question he has earned his commission before, during, and after our purchases. Without his hard work we could have never gotten our 2nd house, and on top of that his referrals to various contractors has saved us thousands of dollars.

 

~ James Rivers

The Barbee Dream Homes Team rented our investment property in no time. We are looking forward to investing more money in the Warner Robins area and The Barbee Dream Homes Team will be our exclusive agent. Thanks for a job well done.

 

~ Sandy Camp

Most trustworthy, hardworking, and knowledgeable agents in the middle GA area! I would not go through any other team BUT them! If you worried about who you can trust and who is going to work the hardest for you, let me put your mind at ease and refer you to The Barbee Dream House Team!!! Joe and Jennifer will work their hardest for you!

 

~ Lindsay Thrasher

By far the best agents I've ever used. Great service. They go above and beyond to exceed needs. Very professional and knowledgeable.

 

~ Kathy Jarzynka

We have worked with Joe on several occasions. He recently sold one of our rental houses for us. He was also the one we bought the home from as well as another rental house that we purchased with his help. Joe has always been honest and extremely helpful. I remember one time we were looking at a house and he told us we could look but that he wouldn't let us buy this house because it had too many problems and wasn't worth buying. He was very good at the negotiations and always had our best interest in mind. We recommend he all the time when we hear someone needs a realtor!

 

~ Pam Cliffe

Joe is very honest and hard working. When I purchased my first home he took care of everything made sure my family settled in to a nice house at an affordable price.

 

~ Aaron Meredith

I could not ask for a better Realtor than Joe Barbee. He is the most honest and trustworthy person I have dealt with. He never made us feel pressured to make an offer. It was a GREAT buying experience and we are so happy in our the home he helped us purchase!! He returned every call we made to him and was available ANY time we wanted to view a listing. I will use him again and I recommend him to everyone I know looking to buy or sell.

 

~ Chrissy Todd

Joe always returned my phone calls and emails promptly which was extremely important to me as I had dealt previously with a realtor who was not very responsive. He was very flexible with the times he was available to show me houses. He's very friendly, laid back and approachable.

 

~ Jessica Gaskins

Joe Barbee is our hero! He is very straight-forward about a house's assets and sort-comings and never tried to "sell us ON a house", but instead searched high and low for the perfect home for our needs, desires, and price, so that THE HOUSE sold ITSELF to us. His diligence and dedication continue to amaze us. Our lengthy circumstances presented him with numerous challenges and obstacles in the selling of our home and the purchase of another. But he hung in there with us from start to finish. Every issue that arose was handled quickly and professionally, and usually before we even knew there was a problem! I would definitely recommend Joe Barbee to anyone looking to buy or sell real estate in Middle Georgia. We are extremely satisfied customers.

 

~ Domino Persson

Working with Joe was fantastic. He really took the time to ensure our needs were met. I have never seen anyone work harder to get the job done right and in a timely manner. Plus, his demeanor was so easy going that I truely felt that I was talking to an old friend. I would recommend him, without reservation to anyone in need of his skills.

 

~ Rachel Benton

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